2014/2015年度中国稻米市场分析及展望  

Analysis and Outlook on Chinese Rice Market from 2014 to 2015

作　　者：刘笑然[1] 李越[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省粮食经济研究所,长春130061 [2]中国粮食行业协会玉米分会,长春130061

出　　处：《北方水稻》2015年第3期1-5,共5页North Rice

摘　　要：2014/2015年度我国稻谷产量再次上升,消费量和净进口量也略有增长,供求平衡有余,期末库存将继续增加。在供求与政策等因素的共同作用下,本年度前半年稻米价格总体上呈稳中略升走势,"政策市"特征明显。展望后半年稻米市场,由于稻谷供大于求结余进一步增加,进口量也将维持高位,而消费量和出口又难以扩大,价格下行压力较强,但在国家托市政策的支持下,稻米市场价格涨跌空间都有限,走势变化主要取决于5月份后国家政策稻谷竞拍价格和2015年的稻谷生长情况。The yield in our country rise again from 2014 to 2015, consumption and net input grew slightly, the demand and supply reached balance with ease, ending stocks will continue to increase. As a joint result of supply-demand and policy factor, rice price is stable with stability slightly as a whole in the first half this year, the ＂policy market＂ has a clear feature. Look to the rice market later this year, because of excess supply of rice further increase and import will stayhigh, the consumption and export will be difficult to expand, downward pressure on prices is increase, but with support from market-boosting policies, rice price rise and fall will be limited, price trend mainly depends on the price of auction after May and growth of rice in 2015.

关 键 词：稻米 市场 分析 展望 

分 类 号：F304.3[经济管理—产业经济]