洞庭湖流域农业水灾风险评价  

The Risk Assessment of the Agricultural Flood in Dongting Lake Basin

作　　者：李杨[1] 洪琳琳 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]长沙县松雅湖中学,湖南长沙410100

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第7期91-95,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71303251)

摘　　要：洞庭湖流域是我国洪涝灾害多发地区之一。从孕灾环境脆弱性、致灾因子危险性的自然属性和承灾体易损性的社会属性两个方面入手,建立了反映农业水灾风险的指标体系,在此基础上利用GIS方法、层次分析法和因子叠加法,对洞庭湖流域农业水灾风险进行了综合评价和分析。结果表明:该流域农业水灾高风险地区集中分布在长沙和岳阳市;常德、益阳、株洲、永州属于较高风险区;娄底、湘潭、衡阳、郴州则属于中风险区;邵阳和张家界则属于较低风险区;湘西自治州和怀化市属于低风险区。而孕灾环境脆弱性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性的地域组合差异是导致各地州市农业水灾风险度大小不均的症结所在。The Dongting Lake basin is one of the flood-drought prone areas of our country. The index system to measure the agricultural-flood risk is constructed based on the natt^re attribute of the hazard danger and the hazard-formative- environment fragility, and the society attribute of the hazard-affected-bodies vulnerability. On this basis, the risk of the agricultural flood in Dongting Lake basin is assessed and analyzed synthetically with a combined method of the GIS, the analytic hierarchy process and the factor superposition. The results show that Changsha and Yueyang belong to the highest risk areas; Changde, Yiyang, Zhuzhou and Yongzhou belong to high risk areas; Loudi, Xiangtan, Hengyang and Chenzhou belong to risk areas; Shaoyang and Zhangjiajie belong to low risk areas; and the Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture and Huaihua belong to the lowest risk areaa. The difference in the hazard danger, the hazard-formative-environment fragility and the hazard-affected-bodies vulnerability are the key factors causing the risk level of the agricultural drought of every city.

关 键 词：农业水灾 风险评价 洞庭湖流域 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]