中国居民消费直接碳排放影响因素研究——基于LMDI方法  

Research of Impact of Household Carbon Emission in China:Based on LMDI Model

作　　者：马晓微[1,2] 叶奕[1,2] 杜佳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国能源》2015年第6期30-35,共6页Energy of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71303019);战略性先导科技专项课题(编号:XDA05150600/XDA05140103);校基础研究基金项目(编号:20122142018/20132142001)

摘　　要：温室气体排放导致全球气候变暖。居民消费直接碳排放作为一个重要组成部分,现已受到广泛关注。本文基于LMDI结构分解模型,从全国层面对1994-2012年居民直接碳排放的影响因素进行分析。结果表明,在这一时间段,居民直接消费碳排放总体处于增长阶段,且21世纪后还有加速增长的趋势。其中经济增长导致的能源消费增加是主要推动因素,而能源强度的下降则是抑制直接碳排放增长的主要原因。Greenhouse gases emission leads to global warming. As an important part of carbon emission, household energy consumption has been of widespread concern. In this paper, we analyze the factors of Chinese household carbon emission between 1994 and 2012 based on LMDI structure decomposition model. The results show that, in this period, the household carbon emission is growing in general, and has accelerated growth trend in the 21 st Century. The economic growth leading to the increase of energy consumption is the main driving factor, while the decline in energy intensity is the main cause of carbon emissions growth inhibition.

关 键 词：居民消费 能源消费 碳排放 LMDI 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]