证据理论在Bayes可靠性评估中的应用  

Application of evidence theory in Bayes reliability assessment

作　　者：马丽娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安财经学院行知学院信息系,陕西西安710038

出　　处：《微型机与应用》2015年第6期62-64,68,共4页Microcomputer & Its Applications

摘　　要：提出了一种基于D-S证据理论的Bayes可靠性评估方案,很好地表达和利用了Bayes方法中的"不确定的"先验信息。在无替换定数截尾试验样本下,研究了指数寿命型产品的可靠性指标的估计问题,提出了可靠性评估的两种方法 :通过融合可靠性指标的后验分布进行综合评估和通过融合可靠性指标的后验置信区间进行综合评估。数值实例表明,利用所提出的方法得到的评估结果是"谨慎的"和合理的。In order to express and apply better the uncertain prior information, this paper presents a new Bayesian reliability assessment scheme based on the D-S evidence theory. The estimation for reliability index of exponential distributions is studied tbr the non-replacement fixed failure number test samples. It proposes two reliability assessment methods. One is a comprehensive evaluation by integrating the posterior distributions of reliability indices. The other is one by integrating the posterior confidence intervals. Numerical examples show that the proposed method is prudent and reasonable.

关 键 词：D-S证据理论 BAYES方法 可靠性 LC准则 Pignistic概率 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]