FPSO蒸气云爆炸事故人员风险评估  

Assessment on personal risk in FPSO vapor cloud explosion

作　　者：余建星[1] 唐必意 梁静[1] 石云 张强[1] 张欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]中海油研究总院,北京100027

出　　处：《油气储运》2015年第6期590-594,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金："十二五"国家科技重大专项子课题"深水油气田风险分析与评估技术研究";2011ZX05030-006-03;国家973计划"深海水下油气输送系统安全运行与风险控制";2014CB046804;国家自然科学基金重点项目"复杂环境下深海工程结构动力特性与安全可靠性研究";51239008;国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金"重大水利工程安全性的基础理论研究";51321065;中国海洋石油总公司技术开发项目"海洋工程作业仿真中心体系建设与配套技术研究";Z13KJESJ0002;天津科委资助项目"在役导管架平台结构可靠度评估技术开发研究";Z14SJENG0060

摘　　要：为实现FPSO蒸气云爆炸事故中人员风险的定量评估,采用后果模型与仿真分析相结合的方法,以TNO多能法为基础,得到蒸气云爆炸事故中人员伤害半径与受限气云体积的关系式,并对其有效性进行论证。引入人员伤害无量纲概率模型,提出伤害半径-伤害率联合评估方法。以FPSO一级分离器(气)泄漏后遭遇延迟点火发生爆炸为例,研究冲击波超压随距离的变化关系,计算爆炸导致人员伤亡的伤害半径。以耳膜破裂的PROBIT模型为基础,计算人员伤害率,分析爆炸产生的个人风险值与社会风险值,得出人员风险处于可接受水平。运用CFD软件FLUENT对蒸气云爆炸流场进行仿真分析,得到超压-距离曲线与人员伤亡范围图,对联合评估方法计算结果进行验证。To realize the quantitative assessment on personal risk in case of FPSO vapor cloud explosion, the method combining consequences model with simulation analysis is adopted. Based on TNO multi-energy method, the expression of personal injury radius in relative to limited gas cloud volume in the explosion is obtained, and its effectiveness is verified. The dimensionless probability model of personal injury is used and the joint radius-rate assessment method is proposed. Assuming an explosion caused by gas leakage in the first-stage FPSO separators in case of delayed ignition, the variation of shock overpressure with distance is discussed and the injury radius of casualties in explosion is calculated. With the PROBIT model of eardrum rupture, the personal injury rate is calculated to analyze the personal risk value and social risk value and it turns out that the personal risk is at the acceptable level. The CFD software FLUENT is applied for simulating the flow filed of vapor cloud explosion, and the overpressure-distance curve and casualty range chart are obtained, which can help to verify the calculation result of above joint assessment method.

关 键 词：蒸气云爆炸 联合评估方法 TNO多能法 PROBIT模型 人员风险 FLUENT 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]