能源消费、环境污染与经济增长效应——基于四川省1991—2010年样本数据  

Energy Consumption,Environment Pollution and Economic Growth Effects:Analysis Based on Data Analysis in Sichuan from 1991 to 2010

作　　者：袁程炜[1] 张得[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院 [2]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第7期132-140,共9页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：本文在四川省能源消费、环境污染和经济增长的时间序列数据基础上,利用主成分和因子分析的方法将工业废水、工业固体废物排放量等六个指标折算为环境污染综合指数,并通过建立向量自回归模型,发现污染综合指数、能源消费与污染的交叉乘积项对经济增长存在长期稳定关系,能源消费对经济增长的正向效应大于环境污染对经济增长的负向效应,但环境污染本身对经济增长负向效应显著,且能源消费与环境污染对经济的脉冲效应在第5年开始趋于平稳。建议通过配额管理、优化要素投入结构、推动产业结构升级等措施提高能源消费效益。Energy consumption is an important guarantee for economic growth and social development and also an important reason for environmental pollution. The problem of environmental pollution and economic growth caused by energy consumption is very complicated, which is worthy of attention. On the basis of Sichuan＇s time series data about energy consumption, environmental pollution, and economic growth, this paper firstly makes use of principal component and factor analysis method to change six indicators such as industrial wastewater, industrial solid waste emissions into a comprehensive indicator reflecting the level of pollution. Then we calculate comprehensive pollution index by building vector auto regression model and using the method cointegration test method and confirm the stable longterm relationship between the cross product of energy consumption and pollution and the economic growth. Positive effect on economic growth caused by energy consumption is larger than the negative effect on economic growth caused by environmental pollution, but environmental pollution leads to significantly negative influence on economic growth and. Impulse effect of energy consumption and environmental pollution on economic growth has leveled off in the fifth year. The author suggests to improve energy consumption efficiency through quota management, optimization of factor input structure, and promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure and other means.

关 键 词：能源消费 环境污染 经济增长效应 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F124.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X24