城市生态文明发展进程的综合评价与预测以——广州市2000—2013年纵向追踪数据为例  

Evaluation and Forecast of Ecological Civilization Processes——Based on Data of Guangzhou City from 2000 to 2013

作　　者：吴小节[1] 杨书燕[1] 汪秀琼[2] 陈修德[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广东广州510520 [2]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2015年第8期904-908,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71102052;71402055);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(编号:14JCZH142);广东省自然科学基金项目(编号:S2013040015292);广东省教育厅人文社科项目(编号:2012WYM_0010;2013WYXM0032);广州市哲学社会科学基金项目(编号:14G14)

摘　　要：在界定生态文明建设的内涵基础上,从生态的经济—社会—环境—文化—制度等五个方面构建了城市生态文明评价指标体系。以广州市2000—2013年的纵向数据为评价对象,使用因子分析法对其进行了综合评价,使用回归分析法预测了未来几年广州市的生态文明发展情况。研究结果发现,广州市城市生态文明发展状况呈现逐步上升的趋势。Based on the connotation of the ecological civilization and the general principles of establishing the comprehensive appraisal indicator system,this paper established a comprehensive appraisal indicator system of ecological civilization in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2013,and used factor analysis from five aspects of ecological civilization,namely ecological-economic civilization,ecological-social civilization,ecological-environment civilization,ecological-culture civilization and ecological-system civilization,and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the development of ecological civilization Guangzhou,and used curvilinear regression analysis to predict the situation of next few years. The findings indicated that Guangzhou development of ecological civilization irregular curve was upward trend.

关 键 词：生态文明 综合评价 因子分析 曲线回归 

分 类 号：X2-1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]