基于云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价  

Evaluation on risk grade of tunnel collapse based on cloud model

作　　者：杨光[1] 刘敦文[1] 褚夫蛟[1] 彭怀德[1] 黄维新[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年第6期95-101,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对造成隧道塌方事故影响因子的复杂性和模糊性,基于云模型理论,选取影响隧道塌方风险的10项因子,建立了4个风险等级的隧道塌方风险评价模型。根据云模型的数字特征计算规则计算各因子隶属于不同风险等级的云模型数字特征,结合正向正态云发生器和各项评价因子的权重,获得云模型的综合确定度,最终由最大综合确定度确定隧道塌方风险等级。工程实例样本应用中,构建的隧道塌方风险评价云模型和模糊综合评价模型的评价结果相符,同时与相应的设计施工方案和施工安全风险评估报告的结果相吻合,表明该模型的可行性与有效性,体现出云模型中定性语言描述和定量数值间不确定转换的优点,且结果便于工程应用。A risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse with four risk grades based on cloud model theory was established aiming at the complexity and fuzziness of affecting factors in tunnel collapse accidents, as ten factors influencing the risk of tunnel collapse were chosen. The numerical characteristics of cloud model for each evaluation factors on different risk grades of tunnel collapse were calculated based on the computation rules on numerical characteristics of cloud model. Considering the forward normal cloud generator and the weights of each factors, the comprehensive degrees of certainty were obtained, and the risk grade of tunnel collapse was finally specified by the maximum comprehensive degree of certainty. In the sample application of engineering case, the evaluation results of tunnel collapse risk by the cloud model was consistent with that by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and it tallied with the results of corresponding design and construction scheme and risk evaluation report of con-struction safety, which indicated the feasibility and effectiveness of the cloud model. The cloud model on risk evaluation of tunnel collapse has the advantage to achieve uncertainty transformation between qualitative language description and quantitative numerical value, and the results of cloud model can be used easily in engineering ap-plication.

关 键 词：云模型 隧道塌方 风险评价 正态云 确定度 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]