基于系统动力学的供应链中断对供应链利润的影响分析  

Analysis of Supply Chain Disruption on Supply Chain Profit: A System Dynamics Perspective

作　　者：邓爱民[1] 文小平[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《物流技术》2015年第11期208-211,269,共5页Logistics Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71172194/G0212);德国BMBF项目(APR10/810)

摘　　要：研究了三级供应链不同位置的中断对供应链总利润的影响。利用系统动力学仿真工具Vensim PLE建模,画出了三级供应链系统不同位置中断时的存量流量图,并对系统的运行过程进行了仿真模拟,最后将数据导入EXCEL计算整理,分析了不同位置的中断对供应链总利润的影响。结果表明:不同位置的中断都会使供应链总利润下降,中断持续时间越长,供应链总利润受影响越大,且发生在供应链上游的中断对总利润影响最大。In this paper, we studied the influence of the disruption at the different positions on a three-echelon supply chain on its total profit. First we used the system dynamics modeling tool Vensim PLE to build the model of a three-echelon supply chain system, drew the stock flowchart of the system in the occurrence of disruption at different positions of the supply chain, next simulated the operational process of the system and at the end, by importing the result into the EXCEL program, analyzed the influence of the disruption at different positions on the total profit of the supply chain.

关 键 词：供应链中断 系统动力学 供应链总利润 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] F274[经济管理—企业管理]