基于短生命周期产品的供应链需求预测比较  

Comparison and Forecasting of Short Life Circle Product Supply Chain Demand

作　　者：徐海艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]嘉兴学院平湖校区,浙江嘉兴314200

出　　处：《物流技术》2015年第11期224-226,共3页Logistics Technology

基　　金：浙江省教育厅科研项目(Y201330186)

摘　　要：从短生命周期产品的自身特点出发,构建了一个零售商和供应商的安全库存随需求变化定期调整的二级供应链系统动力学模型。在供应商相同的补货策略下,对比BASS模型、S型增长模型和指数平滑法三种需求预测方法的预测精度。仿真结果显示,BASS模型在短生命周期产品需求预测精度上要优于其他两种方法,但其参数估值精度对顾客需求量和需求高峰期有重要影响,且各有侧重;同时,缩短运输时间对供应商的激励作用要大于零售商。In this paper, starting from the characteristics of the short life circle product, we built the system dynamics model of a twoechelon supply chain composed of one retailer and one supplier whose safety stock level was adjusted periodically to the changes in their demand level, compared the accuracy of the BASS model, S- shaped grwoth model and exponential smoothing model in forecasting the demand of the supplier under the same replenishment strategy, and at the end, elaborated on the findings.

关 键 词：短生命周期 BASS模型 S型增长模型 指数平滑法 供应链 需求预测 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]