基于需求转移测度的衰退期产品赊销决策方法研究  

Decision Method of Products Sold on Credit in Declining Period based on the Measurement of Demand Shifting

作　　者：孙庆文[1] 石旭辉 栾晓慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学工商管理学院,石家庄050061

出　　处：《商业研究》2015年第7期131-138,共8页Commercial Research

基　　金：河北省社会科学发展研究课题"基于商机存在概率估测的赊销决策模型与方法研究";项目编号:2014031950;河北省自然科学基金资助项目"衰退期产品赊销动态决策优化模型研究";项目编号:G2013207004;河北经贸大学校内科研基金重点项目"食品企业产品赊销动态优化决策模型与方法研究";项目编号:2014KYZ03

摘　　要：本文依据顾客选择行为理论,在赊销企业对不同信用等级客户实行动态差别定价的基础上,构建需求转移模型,求解不同价格调整期间各信用等级客户分别以现销和赊销两种销售方式购买的需求量;同时,通过综合分析赊销信用风险成本、信用等级判别概率及商机存在概率对企业总收益估测的影响,构建赊销决策优化模型。在此基础上,本文进一步利用案例分析指出需求转移程度对赊销收益估测及决策的影响,为企业推出赊销的最佳时机提供了决策参考。According to customer choice behavior theory, this thesis established a demand shifting model on the basis of implementing dynamic and differential pricing strategy for different credit rating customers, and solved cash and credit demand of each credit rating in every price adjustment period.Then, the optimal decision model was set up by analyzing the effects of credit risk cost, the probability of credit discrimination and the probability of business opportunity on total income.By case analysis, it pointed out the effects of demand shifting on profit evaluation and credit decision, which helps the enterprise to grasp the best time to launch credit.

关 键 词：衰退期产品 顾客选择行为 需求转移测度 收益估测 赊销决策 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] C93[经济管理—国民经济]