基于致灾因子指标体系的海冰灾害风险评估和区划方法  

The method for Risk Assessment and Zoning of Sea Ice Disaster based on the Index System of Disaster-inducing Factors

作　　者：袁本坤[1,2] 曹丛华[1,2] 江崇波[1,2] 郭可彩[1,2] 商杰[1,2] 黎舸[1,2] 刘钦政[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266061 [2]山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室,山东青岛266061 [3]国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京100194

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2015年第2期8-12,共5页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：海洋公益性行业科研专项(201105016)

摘　　要：中国是世界上受海冰危害严重的国家之一,历史上曾发生过多次严重海冰灾害,造成重大损失。根据我国结冰海区海冰灾害风险的自然过程、社会经济状况和成灾机制,综合考虑致灾因子危险性、承灾体分类、分布及脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力等因素,对海冰灾害发生的可能性及其不确定性等进行综合分析,提出了开展海冰灾害风险评估和区划的理论依据,同时给出了利用致灾因子指标体系对海冰灾害风险进行评估和区划的具体方法。China is one of the countries affected by severe ice damage in the world, and historically there had been a number of serious sea ice disasters which caused heavy losses. According to the natural process for the risk of sea ice disaster, socio-economic status and disaster mechanism, considering the risk of disasters, classification and distribution as well as vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation and other factors, the possibility and uncertainty of sea ice disaster are comprehensively analyzed in this paper. And the theoretical basis to conduct risk assessment and zoning of sea ice disaster are put; meanwhile, the specific methods by use of index system on disaster inducing factors for risk assessment and zoning of sea ice disaster are also given.

关 键 词：渤海及黄海北部 海冰 海冰灾害 致灾因子 指标体系 风险评估和区划 

分 类 号：X145[环境科学与工程—环境科学]