中国服务经济发展的空间集聚效应及影响因素研究——基于31省市面板数据的空间统计及计量分析  

Study on Spatial Agglomeration of Services Economy in China and Its Determinants: Spatial Statistical Survey and Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of 31 Provinces and Cities

作　　者：龚静[1] 尹忠明[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学国际商学院 [2]北方民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第7期97-107,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"中国对外直接投资与国内产业结构转型升级的内外联运机制研究(13BJY082)";西南财经大学"中央高校基本科研业务费(JBK120403)"的资助成果

摘　　要：本文对中国1996-2012年31个省市服务经济集聚的空间效应进行了现状描述和实证研究。结论如下:中国省际服务经济发展存在显著的空间集聚现象,有超过60%的省市集聚类型具有"高-高"集聚型和"低-低"集聚型的"马太效应"特征;有超过90%的省市集聚类型存在"路径依赖"特征。空间面板计量模型表明,SAR模型的空间自回归系数和SEM模型的空间自相关系数均显著为正,解释变量中的地区市场规模、人力资本、科研资源和基础设施等因素对地区服务经济发展具有显著的促进作用,而产业结构中的工业化程度则会抑制服务经济的发展。Combining spatial statistics and spatial econometrics, this paper de- scribes and empirically analyzes the status of the spatial agglomeration of servic- es economy in China based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 1996 to 2012, and comes up with the following conclusions. First, global Moran＇s I in- dex is significantly positive which suggests that spatial agglomeration definitely exists in the developing services economy, and the trend of the positive spatial autocorrelation indicates a spiral development. Second, from the scatter diagram of local Moran＇s I index, ＂Matthew effect＂ characterized ＂high- high＂ ag- glomeration and ＂low- low＂ agglomeration are identified in over 60% provinc- es and cities and the ＂path dependence＂ characteristic is found in the cluster types of over 90% provinces and cities. Third, using either the ＂0- 1＂ border adjacency method or the distance attenuation method to measure the spatial weight matrix, the spatial autoregressive coefficient as shown by SAR model and the spatial autocorrelation coefficient as shown by SEM model are significantly positive, further testifying to the existence of the significant positive spatial auto- correlation in inter- provincial services economic development. Moreover, regional market scale, human resource, R＆D resource and infrastructure can significantly promote the development of local services economy, but industrialization level of the industrial structure would play an inhibiting role.

关 键 词：服务经济发展 空间集聚 Moran's I指数 空间计量模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F276.3[经济管理—企业管理]