基于脉冲响应函数的我国铁路交通与旅游经济增长的关系研究  

Study on Relationship between Railway Traffic and Tour Economic Growth in China based on Impulse Response Function

作　　者：朱桃杏[1] 陆军[1] 朱正国[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871 [2]石家庄铁道大学土木工程学院,河北石家庄050043

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2015年第7期54-60,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(11AZD093);国家自然科学基金项目(41401158);河北省高等学校科学技术研究青年基金项目(QN20131035)

摘　　要：依据1996—2013年我国铁路发展特征指标和旅游总收入指标数据,利用协整理论,采用脉冲响应函数自向量回归模型和方差分解法对铁路与旅游业发展的关系进行研究。研究结论显示,旅游总收入和铁路建设投资、铁路营业里程、列车旅行速度具有长期稳定均衡的关系。脉冲响应结果表明,铁路建设投资的增长并不能持续推动旅游业收入的增长,旅游总收入的增长对铁路营业里程增长率冲击的响应一直保持幅度较小的正响应。方差分解结果表明,旅游业发展的动力首先是源于自身的内在爆发力,其次是列车旅行速度、铁路营业里程和铁路建设投资的冲击。According to the data of development characteristic index of China railway and the index of total tourism revenue in 1996—2013, by using co-integration theory, the VAR of impulse response function and variance decomposition method, this paper studies the relationship between railway and tourism development. The study result shows total tourism revenue has a long-term, stable and balance relationship with railway construction investment, railway route length and train running speed. The impulse response result shows that： the increase of railway construction investment could not continuously promote the increase of tourism income; and the increase of total tourism revenue always maintains a small-range positive response on the impact of growth rate of railway route length. The variance decomposition result shows that： the motive force of tourism development firstly comes from inner explosive effort of tourism itself, secondly comes from the impact of train running speed, railway route length and railway construction investment.

关 键 词：铁路 旅游业 脉冲响应 向量自回归 方差分解 

分 类 号：U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]