1961-2011年黄淮海地区极端降水时空变化特征  

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation in Huanghuaihai Area,1961-2011

作　　者：尹军[1] 杨志勇[1] 袁喆[1] 袁勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第3期71-75,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03);国家自然科学基金项目(51009148;51309129);国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"计划项目(2010CB951102)

摘　　要：基于Arc GIS平台,分析了黄淮海地区1961-2011年最大1 d、3 d和5 d降雨的时空变化特征,同时利用Pearson-III分布对其进行拟合,对比1985年前后10年一遇和50年一遇最大1 d、3 d和5 d降雨的变化情况。研究结果表明:1961-2011年黄淮海地区最大1 d、3 d及5 d降水整体有下降趋势,1995年后下降趋势更为明显;海河流域极端降水量下降幅度较大,洪涝灾害风险近年来有降低趋势;淮河流域整体上存在上升趋势,但2005年后出现下降趋势,整体上洪涝风险有加剧趋势。Based on the platform of ArcGIS,temporal and spatial variation of maximum precipitation within 1 day,3 days and 5 days in Huanghuaihai area from 1961 to 2011 was analyzed.Besides,maximum precipitation within 1 day,3 days and 5 days in 10 and 50 year return period before and after 1985 were compared with each other.The results show that the maximum precipitation within 1 day,3 days and 5 days in Huanghuaihai area from 1961 to 2011 are having a decreasing trend on the whole,especially after 1995;the decreasing trend is more obvi-ous in Haihe river basin,so the risk of flood disaster is decreasing in the recent years;Huaihe river basin is having an increasing trend on the whole but it began to decrease after 2005;Huaihe river basin is facing an increasing risk of flood disaster overall.

关 键 词：黄淮海地区 极端降水 时空变化 洪涝灾害 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]