基于多智能体的暴雨洪涝人口风险动态评估  

The Dynamic Population Risk Assessment Model for Rainstorm-flood Utilization Multi-agent

作　　者：李文波[1] 郭啸天[1,2] 毛雪岷[3] 肖丹[4] 赖文泽 王海雷[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院合肥智能机械研究所,安徽合肥230031 [2]中国科学技术大学自动化系,安徽合肥230027 [3]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230036 [4]贵州财经大学贵州省经济系统仿真重点实验室,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第3期80-87,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101516;91324006;91024008);贵州科技计划项目(黔科合SY字[2012]3040)

摘　　要：面向灾害管理实际工作对洪涝人口风险进行动态评估的需求,利用复杂系统中的智能体建模方法(Agent-based Modeling,ABM)构建基于ABM的暴雨洪涝人口风险动态评估模型,对暴雨全过程中的人口风险进行动态定量评估。该文对所构建的模型中涉及到的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和人口风险分析等Agent的模型与作用规则进行深入分析;然后在Netlogo平台上,对淮河流域上鲁山县的暴雨洪涝全过程中的人口风险进行模拟仿真和评估,验证了所构建模型的有效性。研究结果为暴雨洪涝灾害人口风险动态分析提供了新的思路。The disaster management practical work needs the dynamic results of population risk during the whole rainstorm process.The Agent-based Modeling （ABM）,which is one method for complex system modeling, had been employed to build population risk dynamic assessment model for rainstorm-flood.The built model had been used to dynamically assess the population risk for the whole rainstorm process.The internal models,the mechanism,the rules,and the communication of different agents,including hazard factor agents,hazard environ-ments agents,hazard effect objects agents,and risk analyze agents,had been focused.On Netlogo platform,the constructed models had been used to assess the population risk dynamic changes of Lushan County which locates in the upstream of the Huaihe River Basin.The results show that the constructed models in this paper can effectively solve the dynamic changes of the population risk during the whole process of rainstorm-flood disaster.The results of this study can provide one new approach for flood disasters risk dynamic assessment.

关 键 词：暴雨 洪涝灾害 人口 风险 动态评估 多智能体 模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]