基于SPEI的北江飞来峡流域干旱时空演变特征分析  

Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Drought in the Feilaixia Catchment of Beijiang River Based on SPEI

作　　者：冼卓雁 武传号 黄国如[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640 [2]华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广东广州510640

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第3期198-203,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301093;201401048);华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室自主研究课题项目(2014ZC09)

摘　　要：气候变暖导致干旱事件频发,利用1969-2011年北江飞来峡流域24个雨量站和4个气象站月降雨及气温数据,计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析等方法分析了该地区多时间尺度的干旱时空变化特征。研究结果表明,SPEI能较好地反映出流域内干湿变化特征。在过去的43年中,流域内干旱事件频次总体上呈上升趋势,且极端干旱事件有所增加,从空间分布看,流域上游和下游出口断面附近呈现出较为显著的干旱趋势,随着时间尺度增加,干旱趋势愈发显著,趋势稳定性也有所增强。Drought events occurred frequently because of climate warming.Based on monthly precipitation and temperature data from 28 stations （24 rainfall stations and 4 meteorological stations）during the period 1969 -2011 in the Feilaixia catchment of the Beijiang River basin,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI）is calculated.The multi-scale spatial and temporal characteristics of drought are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test method.The results show that the SPEI is a suitable index to describe the variation of wet and dry spells.Overall,the frequency of drought and the proportion of severe drought show increasing trends in the study area.A significant trend of drought is found in the upstream area and downstream area near the outlet.Fur-thermore,the trends of drought become more significant and more stable with the increase of time scales.

关 键 词：干旱 标准化降水蒸散指数 飞来峡流域 时空特征 趋势稳定性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S423[农业科学—植物保护]