云南省地质灾害影响因素及高危险区分析  

Factors and High Risk Area Analysis of Geological Hazards in Yunnan

作　　者：何瑞翔 林齐根 王瑛[1,4] 宋崇振 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]华南师范大学地理科学学院,广东广州510631 [3]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [4]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第3期208-213,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金："十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK10B03);国家自然科学基金项目(41271544)

摘　　要：建立云南省地质灾害数据库,利用Logistics回归方程,分析云南省东部、西部地区的地质灾害发生影响因素,其结果为:地形起伏度越大、人口密度越多,都会增加该地域发生地质灾害事件的可能性,但距构造断裂带的距离变远,会降低发生的可能性。东西部最根本差异的影响因素是:东部地区是人类活动因素占主导;西部地区仍然是自然因素占主导。此外,地质类型对地质灾害事件的影响情况,东西部也有差异。根据Logistic回归模型计算得到云南省地质灾害发生概率图,确定云南省52个地质灾害高危险县,这些县域是地质灾害高危险重点防范区,要根据所处地域情况,采取针对性的防灾减灾措施。Based on the geological hazards inventory of Yunnan Province established by the authors,this pa-per analyzed the factors influencing the occurrence of geological hazards in eastern and western Yunnan Province via Logistics regression model.The result shows that the region with high relief,high population density,and close dis-tances to fault zones is more prone to geological hazards.The ultimate difference of the factors influencing the oc-currence of geological hazards is that the dominant factor in eastern area is human activities,while the western area is predominantly affected by natural factors.The impact of geology period to the occurrence of geological hazards shows differences in eastern and western area as well.The accuracy of Logistic regression model is stable （above 70%）after 10 times repeated random points test.The probability graph of the occurrences of geological hazards calculated by Logistics regression model indicates 52 high-risk counties which are the key areas for geological disas-ter risk prevention in the future.

关 键 词：地质灾害 Logistics回归模型 影响因子 高危险区 云南省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P694[天文地球—地质学]