吉林省东部水稻延迟型冷害时空分布特征分析  

Spatial-temporal Characteristics Analysis of Prolong-type Rice Chilling Damage in Eastern Jilin Province

作　　者：朱萌[1] 周沫[1] 乌兰[1] 王永芳[1] 乌日娜[1] 马齐云 张继权[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学环境学院自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第3期223-228,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金："十二五"农村领域国家科技计划课题(2011BAD32B00-04)

摘　　要：利用吉林省东部10个气象站点1961-2010年的逐日气温资料和水稻种植资料，以中国气象局2013年发布的《水稻冷害评估技术规范（QX／T182—2013）》行业标准中东北地区不同热量区域5-9月平均气温之和的距平值为指标，利用空间插值、EOF、小波分析、趋势分析的方法对吉林省东部水稻延迟型冷害的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明，吉林省东部地区水稻延迟型冷害平均发生频率在30％～40％之间，大体上由东向西平均发生频率逐渐降低，1980年代的平均发生频率最高；吉林省东部地区水稻延迟型重度冷害、中度冷害发生的次数多，冷害的强度大，平均强度的空间分布大体上由中间向南向北强度逐渐减弱。特别是1970年代冷害发生的强度最强。通过 EOF 分析，吉林省东部低温特征的空间变率，大体上具有东北—西南向的变化特征，东北部的温度距平变率较低，向西南部逐渐增加，再向西有略微递减的趋势。通过小波分析法对吉林省东部温度距平百分率第一主特征向量的时间系数进行分析，1969、1976、1980、1993、1995年为典型低温年，1980-1990年温度距平百分率的东北—西南向的变化特征具有明显的6～7年的周期性，2000年以后周期性不明显。Using the daily temperature data and information on rice cultivation from 1961 to 2010 of ten mete-orological stations in eastern Jilin Province,taking the average temperature of the anomaly from May to September in the Northeast region of the different heat of China as index that was from a “rice chilling assess the technical specifications （QX /T182-2013）”industry standard of China that was issued by China Meteorological Administra-tion in 2013,Methods by the spatial interpolation,EOF,wavelet analysis,trend analysis analyzed spatial and tem-poral characteristics of prolong-type rice chilling damage in eastern Jilin province.The results show that the average frequency of prolong-type rice chilling damage in eastern Jilin Province between 30% to 40%,generally,de-creased from east to west,Highest frequency occurrence in the 1980s,severe and moderate prolong-type rice chill-ing damage in eastern Jilin province occurred many times,intensity is large,Spatial distribution of the average in-tensity gradually weakened,generally,from the middle to both sides.Highest Intensity occurrence in the 1970s. Analyzed by the EOF method that Low-temperature characteristics of spatial variability in eastern Jilin Province gen-erally showed a northeast -southwest direction characteristics change,Temperature anomalies variability in the northeastern is small,that increased gradually from northeast to southwest,then west slightly decreasing trend.An-alyzed by the wavelet analysis method temperature anomaly percentage of the first main the feature vector time coef-ficient,the results shows that 1969,1976,1980,1993,1995 is a typical low-temperature year.From 1980 to 1990,the spatial variation of temperature anomalies percentage has obvious 6 to 7 years periodic characteristics,af-ter 2000,cyclical characteristics are not obvious.

关 键 词：水稻 延迟型冷害 时空分布 吉林省东部 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]