6月广东持续性暴雨过程概念模型的建立  

ESTABLISHMENT OF CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR GUANGDONG PERSISTENT TORRENTIAL RAIN IN JUNE

作　　者：林爱兰[1] 谷德军[1] 郑彬[1] 李春晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2015年第3期289-299,共11页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省科技计划重点项目(2012A030200006);国家重大科学研究计划项目(2014CB953901);国家自然科学基金项目(41075073;41205069)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1979-2011年广东省86个测站地面观测逐日降水资料及NCEP-DOE第二套分析资料，通过合成分析和过程回报检验等步骤，从中高纬度环流型、区域动力上升条件和水汽输送条件三方面，确定广东6月持续性暴雨信号并进行量化表征，建立了广东持续性暴雨发生的概念模型。从30次历史持续性暴雨过程检验表明，有28次过程符合概念模型。通过2012年6月21-24日持续性暴雨过程检验表明，概念模型有一定实际应用价值。根据概念模型结合模式预报产品，将可进行中期和延伸期预报。另外，中高纬度环流型有一定持续性，通常提前1-4天出现异常信号，这对短期天气预报也有参考价值。By composite analysis and process hindcasting, signals for persistent torrential rain of Guangdong in June are determined and quantitatively expressed, and a conceptual model is established based on mid- and higher-latitude circulation, regional kinetic ascending, water vapor transportation and observational daily precipitation of 86 stations in Guangdong as well as daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 during 1979-2011. It is shown that there are 28 processes of persistent torrential rain matching the conceptual model through examining 30 historical processes. Tested by a persistent torrential rain process during June 21-24 in 2012, the conceptual model has a certain practical value. According to the conceptual model and combined with the model prediction products, medium and extended range forecasting of persistent torrential rain can be carried out. In addition, the mid- and high-latitude circulation type persists for some time and usually shows abnormal signals 1-4 days in advance, which can be directly exploited in short-term weather forecast.

关 键 词：气候学 概念模型 持续性暴雨 广东 中高纬度环流型 动力上升条件 水汽输送条件 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]