河南粮食生产影响因素的改进广义灰关联度分析  

Improving Generalized Grey Relational Grade Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Henan Province

作　　者：刘青利[1] 杨铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455002

出　　处：《河南科学》2015年第6期1007-1013,共7页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2013BJJ033)

摘　　要：利用剩余法对河南省粮食生产波动进行分析,根据其波动情况将1990—2012年河南省粮食生产划分为两个阶段.然后采用改进的广义灰色关联度分析方法对两个阶段中10个影响因素进行了动态分析.结果表明:河南省的粮食生产总体呈增长趋势,但波动频繁,且具有阶段性变化特征;粮食单产、农田有效灌溉面积和农业机械总动力是河南省粮食生产的主控因素;农药和化肥对粮食增产的作用越来越大,但应注意环境保护,发展有机化肥和生物农药;耕地保护应严格执行,确保粮食播种面积.In this article we analyzed the fluctuation of grain production in Henan Province by using the residual method. The grain production 1990-2012 was divided into two stages according to its fluctuation. And then we analyzed 10 factors influencing grain production in two stages by the improved generalized grey relational analysis method. The grain production of Henan Province shows a rising trend with frequent fluctuation,and has stage variation characteristics. The grain yield per unit area,effective irrigated area and the total power of agricultural machinery are the main controlling factors of grain production in Henan Province. The function of pesticides and fertilizers on the stable development of grain yield is growing. It is suggested to pay attention to environmental protection ,and to develop organic fertilizers and bio？pesticides. The protection of cultivated land should be strictly enforced to ensure the grain sown area.

关 键 词：粮食生产 改进广义灰色关联度 动态分析 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学] F323.21[理学—基础数学]