湖南省短历时降水极值分布拟合与应用  

Fitting of extreme distribution for precipitation in a short-period and its application in Hu'nan province

作　　者：郭凌曜[1] 李英[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南长沙410118 [2]成都军区空军气象中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2015年第3期69-74,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：2014年湖南省气象局科研课题"湖南省短历时强降水事件气候特征研究"(201410)资助

摘　　要：选择适宜的极值分布模型有助于提高极值序列再现期极值的准确度。基于1981—2010年湖南省97个地面气象观测站逐时降水观测资料,构建逐站年和季1 h、3 h、12 h最大降水量序列,运用Pearson-Ⅲ型、Gumbel、对数正态、Cauchy和Weibull 5种分布函数对湖南省3种短历时最大降水量序列进行极值分布拟合。结果表明:1981—2010年湖南省中北部地区3种短历时降水极值分布符合Gumbel分布模型,Weibull分布次之;湖南省南部地区3种短历时降水极值分布则仅符合Gumbel分布模型。在此基础上,应用Gumbel分布模型估算湖南省各站重现期为百年的降水极值,结果表明1 h、3 h、12 h的年降水极值高值中心分别位于湘东南地区、湖南省西部地区和湘西北地区;各季降水极值中心与年极值中心略有不同。Selection of an appropriate extreme distribution model will help to improve the accuracy of the extreme series.Based on hourly precipitation data at 97 weather stations during 1981 to 2010 in Hu′nan province,annual and seasonal maximum precipitation series with period of 1 hour,3 hours and 12 hours were established in each station.Three short-period precipitation extreme series distributions were fitted in terms of a Pearson-Ⅲ,a Gum-bel,a Lognormal,a Cauchy and a Weibull distribution functions.The results indicate that three short-period precip-itation extreme series distributions can be well fitted with the Gumbel model in the middle and north areas of Hu′nan province.The Weibull model is ranked second,while the series can only be fitted with the Gumbel model in the south area.According to these analysis,precipitation extreme in each station with recurrence interval of 100 years is calculated using the Gumbel distribution.It suggests that large value centers of annual precipitation with period of 1 hour,3 hours and 12 hours series occur in the southeast,west and northwest areas of Hu′nan province, respectively.Seasonal and annual extreme precipitation centers are slightly different.

关 键 词：短历时 降水极值 分布拟合 百年极值预估 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]