下穿既有桥梁隧道施工风险定量评估方法  

Quantitative risk assessment model of tunnel construction under passing existing bridges

作　　者：陈洁金[1,2] 张永杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学土木与建筑学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]长沙理工大学岩土工程施工灾变防控与环境修复技术2011协同创新中心,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期1862-1868,共7页Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51208063)~~

摘　　要：以城市隧道下穿建(构)筑物风险定量评估体系为研究对象,针对施工中存在随机和模糊不确定性问题,基于故障树、区间算法和模糊数学建立模糊故障树风险评价模型。首先在调查100多处城市隧道施工不当引起临近建(构)筑物安全事故的案例后,总结风险事故的影响因素和基本事件。其次,根据专家的经验和模拟试验确定基本事件的发生模糊概率,利用模糊区间算法计算顶事件的模糊发生概率和各影响因素的模糊重要度;采用模糊层次评价模型对临近桥梁损害风险发生的后果进行评估,根据顶事件的风险发生概率和风险后果程度确定风险等级。最后结合工程实例,验证该模型的准确性和有效性。研究结果表明:该方法提供了一套完整的下穿建(构)筑物城市隧道施工风险的定量评估体系,可为管理部门风险规避提供参考。The quantitative risk assessment system of city tunnel construction underpassing existing bridges was studied.Considering the presence of random and fuzzy uncertainties in city tunnel construction, a fuzzy fault tree risk assessment model was set up based on the fault tree, interval algorithm and fuzzy math. Firstly, the main influence factors and corresponding risk basis event were summarized on the basis of the investigation of more than 100 cases about accidents caused by the tunnel improper construction adjacent buildings and constructs. Secondly, the fuzzy probability of basic events was determined according to experts＇ experience and simulation tests, and the fuzzy probability of adjacent buildings damages and the fuzzy important degree of each factor were obtained through the interval algorithm.Furthermore, the consequence of damaging risks of the adjacent bridges was evaluated by fuzzy hierarchical evaluation model. Finally, the engineering example was analyzed to identify the correctness and effectiveness of this method. The results show that the method provides a complete assessment system for city tunnel construction underpassing existing bridges, and it provides important reference on risk avoidance for risk management institute.

关 键 词：隧道施工 风险 模糊故障树 模糊层次分析 

分 类 号：O319.56[理学—一般力学与力学基础]