基于居民膳食结构演变的中国粮食需求量研究  

Prospect of per capita grain demand driven by dietary structure change in China

作　　者：辛良杰[1] 王佳月[1] 王立新[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第7期1347-1356,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目课题:"国土生态安全和优化水土资源配置与空间格局研究";国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)项目(2015CB452702)

摘　　要：利用"粮食转化率"概念将居民消耗的主要食品转化为原粮,并利用实际调查数据对官方的城乡居民食品消耗数据进行了订正。结果发现,2012年中国居民人均粮食消耗量为327.5kg,高出统计数据20.8kg。至2030年,中国口粮消费量将持续减少,但减少速度会逐步放缓,尤其是城镇居民,原粮消费会维持在105kg左右的水平上,农村居民口粮的消费水平将达到120kg左右,全国居民平均水平将下降到110.3kg。禽类、水产品、奶类的消费品将会明显增长,牛羊肉的增长比例也在50%以上。2030年中国居民人均粮食消费量会达到386.5kg,较2012年增长18.0%。如果纳入工业用粮、损失浪费用粮、种子用粮,2030年中国居民人均粮食需求将会超过517.3kg,如果再纳入政策性收购量与出口量,那么2030年中国居民人均粮食需求总量为551.4kg。为保障粮食安全,中国必须持续重视农业基础设施建设,提高农业整体产出水平;农业生产结构也需要向畜牧业倾斜;同时要减少损耗与浪费,提高食物的二次利用水平。Here,data for food consumption by urban and rural residents issued by the State Statistical Bureau were revised by field surveys,and all main revised food consumption quantities were transformed into raw grain. Chinese per capita grain consumption in 2012 was 327.5kg,20.8kg higher than the estimate calculated using data from the State Statistical Bureau. Grain ration demand of Chinese residents is expected to continue to decline for a long time,especially for urban residents whose per capita grain ration consumption will decease to 105 kg until 2030,compared with 120 kg for rural residents. In 2030,the average grain ration consumption of the whole of China will be 110.3kg. The quantities of consumption of poultry,aquatic and milk products will increase significantly,and the quantities of consumption of beef and mutton will increase by more than 50 per cent. Chinese per capita grain consumption in 2030 will be 386.5 kg,18.0 per cent higher than that in 2012. If grains for industrial uses and seed,grain loss and waste are taken into account,the total amount of grain demand per capita will be 517.3kg in 2030. China must have a certain amount of grain for reserves and export,so the total average of per capita grain demand will be 551.4kg in 2030. For food security,Chinese agricultural productivity should be improved through improving agricultural infrastructure,agricultural productivity structure should incline to animal husbandry,and China should reduce grain loss and waste.

关 键 词：膳食结构演变 粮食需求 2030年预测 政策启示 

分 类 号：R151.45[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学] F326.11[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]