基于CPV模型的城镇化国内贷款信用风险分析  

Analysis on the Credit Risk of Domestic Loans in Urbanization Construction Based on CPV Model

作　　者：白建琨 魏晓琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第4期636-639,共4页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：2011年教育部人文社科研究规划基金一般项目(11YJA790160)

摘　　要：城镇化是我国重要的发展战略,当前我国城镇化建设最大的问题就是资金不足,我国城镇化资金来源分为自筹资金、国内贷款、国家预算资金、利用外资和其他资金五种。首先,本文分析了城镇化进程中资金的均衡关系,发现我国城镇化建设中资金供应严重不足。其次,设计了解决供求资金缺口的方案——调整资金供应内部结构,增加国内贷款,尤其是增加制造业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,房地产业这三项行业的贷款。最后,建立CPV模型研究城镇化贷款总量和主要行业贷款的信用风险,证实解决城镇化供求资金缺口方案——增加国内贷款,尤其是三个主要行业的贷款总量——可行性。Urbanization is an important development strategy in our country. The biggest problem of urbanization is insufficient funds. The funds of urbanization construction include self-financing, domestic loans, state budget funds, foreign investment and other funds. The issue has a very close relationship with commercial banks. Firstly, the paper analyzed the balance of supply and demand of the capital for urbanization to find that the urbanization construction was in a serious shortage of funds. Secondly, the paper designed a scheme adjusting the internal financing structure and increasing the domestic lending, especially the three main sectors to solve the supply and demand gap. Thirdly, the paper studied the loans’ credit risk based on the CPV model, which confirmed the feasibility of the above programs.

关 键 词：CPV模型 城镇化 国内贷款 信用风险 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]