基于乐观值和悲观值的不同风险态度行程时间预算  被引量:2

Travel time budget of travelers with different risk attitudes based on optimistic and pessimistic values

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作  者:李小静[1] 刘立舰[1] NAUMOV Stanislav 

机构地区:[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出  处:《中南大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年第4期1553-1561,共9页Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology

基  金:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71361018;71161016)~~

摘  要:研究3种风险态度出行者的行程时间预算。首先从随机变量的α乐观值和α悲观值出发,对比收益函数和成本函数的乐观值和悲观值的概念及特征。然后从行程时间可靠度基本概念引出行程时间的机会约束规划(CCP)minimin和minimax模型,通过假设路段行程时间服从正态分布,求出了路段和路径行程时间的α乐观值和β悲观值,又根据Hurwicz乐观系数准则建立2种极端情况的综合平衡模型。最后提出行程时间可靠度指标,并进行了算例分析。研究结果表明方法正确指标合理,可以进行不同风险态度的行程时间预算,并针对具体情况可采用不同的可靠度指标预算出行时间并评价道路性能。Travel time budget of travelers with three risk attitudes was studied. Starting from α-optimistic and α-pessimistic values of stochastic variables the definitions and the characteristics of optimistic and pessimistic values of a benefic function and a cost function were compared. Then a minimin model and a minimax model of chance-constrained programming(CCP) of travel time were derived from the conception of travel time reliability. The α-optimistic and the β-pessimistic values of link and path travel time were obtained through postulating a normal distribution of link travel time. And according to the Hurwicz optimistic coefficient criterion a comprehensive balance model was established. Finally several travel time reliability indexes were proposed, and the analysis was conducted through an example. The results show that the method is right and the indexes are reasonable, and that travel time can be budgeted on the basis of travelers' risk attitudes. According to actual circumstances, different reliability indexes can be adopted to estimate travel time and evaluate road performances.

关 键 词:乐观值 悲观值 机会约束规划 Hurwicz准则 行程时间预算 可靠度指标 

分 类 号:U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]

 

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