基于VEC模型的呼和浩特市三次产业发展与工业污染排放关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between the Development of Thrice Industries and Waste Discharge of Hohhot: Based on the VEC Model

作　　者：金良[1,2] 董锁成[1] 郭嘉铭[2] 李泽红[1] 郑吉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]内蒙古财经大学资源与环境经济学院,呼和浩特010070

出　　处：《环境与可持续发展》2015年第4期147-151,共5页Environment and Sustainable Development

基　　金：国家自然基金项目批准号:41271556

摘　　要：本文通过构建VEC误差修正模型,对呼和浩特市1991-2012年间工业污染排放量与三次产业发展之间的关系分别进行考察。对具有协整关系的两组序列进行VEC模型构建,结果表明,在长期,第一产业、第三产业与工业废水排放存在反向关系,弹性分别为-6.22与-0.23,第二产业与工业废水变动方向相同,弹性为4.98。工业固体废弃物排放与第一产业产值在长期反向变动,弹性为-1.54,第二产业则与其同向运动,弹性为2.13。在短期,滞后一期与滞后二期的第一产业产值与第二产业产值对废水排放的扰动方向相反,而第三产业一阶与二阶后项的扰动方向相同,皆是反向;滞后一期的第一产业产值对固废排放反向扰动,第二产业产值的扰动方向与其相反。By using VEC model, the relationship between the development of thrice industries and waste discharge of Hohhot from 1991 -2012. The VEC model has been made for the two groups of time series which have passed Johansen Cointegration test. The results show that in long - term, The relationship between the primary industry and industrial waste water discharged is inverse, which behaves same to the relationship between the third industry and industrial waste water discharged, the elasticity is - 6. 22 and - 0. 23 respectively. On the contrary, the second industry output trend to move in trandem with industrial waste water discharged, the elasticity is 4. 98. The primary industry output move reversely to industrial solid waste emissions which is opposite to the second industry output. The elasticity is - 1.54 and 2. 13 respectively. In short order, the first - lagged and second - lagged primary industry disturbs industrial waste water discharged in opposite direction, so does the second industry. The first - lagged and second - lagged third industry output has a Reverse on waste water emissions. The first - lagged primary industry has a reverse disturbance and the first - lagged second industry has a positive one on industrial solid waste emissions.

关 键 词：环境经济学 环境污染 VEC模型 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]