2002-2012年上海市杨浦区女性人群乳腺癌的发病和生存情况分析  

The incidence and survival analysis of breast cancer among female residents in Yangpu District of Shanghai from 2002 to 2012

作　　者：韩雪[1] 谢梦[1] 赵佳[1] 丁一波[2] 殷建华[2] 张宏伟[2] 曹广文[2] 马立业[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海市杨浦区疾病预防控制中心办公室,上海200090 [2]第二军医大学流行病学教研室,上海市医学防护重点实验室,上海200433 [3]第二军医大学附属第一医院普通外科,上海200438

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2015年第7期708-711,共4页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30671793;81072377);上海市自然科学基金面上项目(12ZR1429300);上海市卫生局科研面上项目(20114066);上海市公共卫生重点学科建设项目(12GWZX0102)

摘　　要：目的阐明上海市杨浦区2002-2012年期间乳腺癌发病率和生存率。方法整理2002年1月-2012年12月户籍居民乳腺癌发病和死亡资料,应用年平均变化百分比（annual percent change,APC）模型分析发病率和死亡率的时间变化趋势,应用Kaplan-Meier模型和Log-rank检验进行生存分析。采用2000年人口普查的女性年龄构成进行标化。结果在此期间乳腺癌总新发病人4 021例,其中男性30例,女性3 991例,女性乳腺癌占同期女性新发恶性肿瘤的16.09%,位列第1位。女性乳腺癌粗发病率为68.63/10万,标化发病率为40.18/10万。女性乳腺癌的粗发病率（APC=3.50,P〈0.001）和标化发病率（APC=2.91,P〈0.001）逐年增长。40岁以后女性乳腺癌发病率迅速增加。因乳腺癌死亡1 422例,其中男性21例,女性1 401例。女性乳腺癌年均粗死亡率为24.09/10万,标化死亡率为11.04/10万。50岁之后死亡率上升。女性乳腺癌患者的5年生存率为80.93%,其中手术治疗组5年生存率为85.40%,高于非手术组71.81%（U=8.12,P〈0.001）。结论乳腺癌是城市女性人群的主要恶性肿瘤,手术治疗是影响患者生存的一个重要因素。Objective To clarify the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among female permanent residents in Yangpu District,Shanghai,from January 2002 to December 2012.Methods The data of breast cancer patients in female permanent residents were extracted from the database of the registration and management system of Shanghai.Temporal trend in the incidence and mortality of breast cancer during this period was assessed using the annual percent change（APC） model.Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test was utilized to analyze the survival.The incidence and mortality rates were standardized with age composition of female population from a nationwide census carried out in 2000.Results A total of 4 021 cases of breast cancer patients（30 male cases,3 991 female cases） were newly diagnosed in the perminant residents.Female breast cancer accounted for 16.09% of entire female cases with malignant diseases and ranked as the first malignant disease.The crude and standardized incidences of female breast cancer was 68.63 /100 000 and 40.18 /100 000,respectively.Female breast cancer increased consecutively in the crude incidence（APC = 3.50,P〈0.001） and the standardized incidence（APC = 2.91,P〈0.001） from 2002 to 2012.The incidences significantly increased in females over 40 years of age.A total of 1 422 cases（21 male cases; 1 401 female cases） died of breast cancer in this period.Annual crude and standardized mortalities of breast cancer in female population were 24.09 /100 000 and 11.04 /100 000,respectively.The mortalities increased significantly in those over 50 years old.Overall 5-year survival rate of female breast cancer patients was 80.93%.The rate was significantly higher in those who received curative surgery than in those without the surgery（85.40% vs.71.81%,P〈0.001）.Conclusions Breast cancer is the major malignant disease in urban female population.Surgical treatment significantly improves the survival of female breast cancer patients.

关 键 词：乳腺肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤] R181[医药卫生—临床医学]