黑龙江省粮食生产灰色关联分析和预测  

Grey Correlation Analysis and Forecasts of Grain Production in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：王晨筱[1] 龚敏[1] 李晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第23期323-325,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：根据2005-2013年黑龙江省统计资料,运用灰色关联方法对影响粮食生产的各个因素进行分析,并运用GM（1,1）模型预测未来几年黑龙江省的粮食总产量及其影响因素。结果表明,8个主要影响因素与黑龙江省粮食产量显著相关,其中农村用电量、农药施用量和粮食播种面积对粮食产量的影响最大;预测结果显示,未来几年黑龙江省的粮食总产量将会持续增加,有效灌溉面积、农村用电量和农业机械总动力将会成为影响黑龙江省粮食生产的3个最为重要的因素。根据分析结果提出相关建议,为今后黑龙江省农业可持续发展提供参考。Based on the statistical data about Heilongjiang Province from 2005 to 2013,the use of gray correlation analysis on the factors affecting grain production,and use GM（ 1,1） model to predict the value of grain production and the impact of various factors for the next few years. The results showed that 8 main factors significantly associated with grain production,grain acreage,pesticide application rate and rural electricity consumption has the biggest impact on the grain production; prediction indicates that the in the next few years,grain production of Heilongjiang Province will continued to increase,effective irrigation area,rural electricity consumption and the total power of agricultural machinery will be three important impact factors of Heilongjiang Province＇s total grain production. According to the results,several relevant suggestions were put forward,which will provide a reference for the future sustainable development of agriculture in Heilongjiang Province.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 粮食生产 灰色关联分析 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：S9[农业科学—水产科学] F323.21[经济管理—产业经济]