河北省能源消费与经济增长关系的实证分析——基于京津冀协同发展视角  

Empirical Analysis for Energy Consumption and Economic Growth of Hebei——Based on Integration Perspective of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province

作　　者：郭轲[1] 王立群[1] 童万民[1] 杨正华[1] 高德健[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [3]北大方正集团有限公司,北京100871

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2015年第9期1063-1068,1086,共7页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"京津风沙源治理工程生态影响价值计量及后续政策研究"(编号:11YJA630127)

摘　　要：立足于京津冀协同发展的战略背景,运用协整分析与状态空间模型对1980—2012年河北省能源消费与经济增长关系进行实证分析。结果表明,河北省经济增长与能源消费存在长期的均衡关系,当能源消费总量短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以-0.1034的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态,两者之间具有双向的Granger因果关系,经济增长与能源消费相互依赖,断然采取保守型的能源政策可能会对河北省经济发展产生负面影响;能源消费弹性系数处于较高水平,能源消费弹性系数的变化受经济结构影响较大。在京津冀协同发展的背景下,河北省应从承接产业转移促进产业结构优化升级与能源结构优化升级两方面着力,在制定经济增长与能源政策时,必须在协同发展的框架下考虑两者间的相互依赖。Based on the related data from 1980 to 2012, this paper studied the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Hebei with co - integration, granger causality test and state space model under the integration of the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. The empirical analysis showed that Hebei Province had experienced higher levels of economic growth, which was mostly dependence on the second industry, especially the industry. The energy consumption and economic growth was closely related, there existed a long - run equilibrium relationship between two vari- ables, which was not constant, but evolved over time. There was two - way granger causality relationship between the two. Taking conservative energy policy may have a negative impact on economic development in Hebei Province. Energy consumption elasticity coefficient was at high levels, and which changed greatly influenced by the economic structure. In economic growth and energy policy, it should be the focus of energy saving and emission reduction on the industrial structure and energy structure optimization adjustment.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整分析 状态空间模型 河北省 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]