基于不确定性研究的油田开发后期指标预测方法  

A prediction method for oilfield development indices during later period based on uncertainty research

作　　者：方文超[1] 姜汉桥[1] 李俊键[1] 邴绍献[2] 肖武[2] 张超[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)石油工程教育部重点实验室,北京102249 [2]中国石化胜利油田分公司勘探开发研究院,山东东营257015

出　　处：《油气地质与采收率》2015年第5期94-98,共5页Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency

基　　金：国家"973"计划"中国南方海相页岩气高效开发的基础研究"(2013CB228000)

摘　　要：针对油田开发后期开发指标不确定性、波动程度大导致常规预测方法适应性差,且无法提供预测结果概率分布特征的问题,建立了基于不确定性研究的开发后期指标预测方法.该方法通过历史生产数据确定指标影响因素的概率分布,并采用随机算法生成服从概率分布的大量样本,最后通过所建立的指标与影响因素之间的定量关系预测指标的概率分布特征.用该方法对H采油厂注采比进行预测,其2013年前6个月注采比的预测误差平均为0.53%,而多项式回归模型及支持向量机模型的误差分别为3.33%和1.46%;2013年1月的注采比概率分布范围为0.77-0.93,最大概率的注采比为0.834 3.不确定性开发指标预测方法精确度较高,能为开发决策提供可靠依据,并大大降低决策风险.Conventional methods have poor prediction accuracy and can not provide probability distribution characteristics of predicted results for great fluctuation and uncertainty of development indices in later period of oilfield development. A novel prediction method for development indices based on uncertainty research is put forward. This method firstly determines the probability distributions of the influencing factors of index through analyzing the historical production data.Then,a large number of samples for each factor can be produced by random algorithm based on the obtained probability distribution. Finally,the probability distribution of target index is predicted through establishing the quantitative relation between the index and its influencing factors. The injection-production ratio was predicted for H oil production plant by using this novel method. The prediction result for the first six months in 2013 shows that this method has higher prediction precision(the average error is 0.53%)compared to polynomial regression method(the average error is 3.33%)and support vector machine model(the average error is 1.46%). The range of possible injection-production ratio in January 2013 is from 0.77 to 0.93,and the value of 0.834 3 is the most likely to occur. The novel method for development indices prediction based on uncertainty research provides more reliable basis for oil development decision-making,thus greatly lowers decision-making risk.

关 键 词：开发后期 指标预测 不确定性研究 概率分布 开发决策 支持向量机 

分 类 号：TE319[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]