燃气规划用气量的预测方法  

Forecast Method of Gas Consumption in Gas Planning

作　　者：韩旭[1] 赖建波[1] 马俊峰[1] 孙中飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司第四设计研究院,天津300074

出　　处：《煤气与热力》2015年第8期1-4,共4页Gas & Heat

摘　　要：阐述传统规划用气量预测方法、近期规划用气量预测方法,研究远期规划用气量预测的偏最小二乘回归分析法、弹性系数法、GDP单耗法,采用组合预测法可使远期规划用气量预测结果更加合理。The forecast methods of gas eon- sumption in traditional gas planning and short-term gas planning are introduced. The partial least squares regression analysis method, elastic coefficient method and the energy consumption per unit GDP for forecasting gas consumption in long-term gas planning are studied. The combined forecast method can make the forecast result of long-term gas consumption even more rational.

关 键 词：负荷预测 用气量预测 弹性系数法 回归分析法 GDP单耗法 

分 类 号：TU996.3[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]