非线性视角下证券市场波动及危机监管研究——本土与跨国途径两个维度的视角  

Research on Securities Market Volatility and Crisis Supervision under the Nonlinear Paradigm

作　　者：尹海员[1] 王盼盼[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,710119

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2015年第7期9-15,共7页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目:<投资者行为分析与证券市场新干预主义监管>(批准编号:13FJY012);陕西省自然科学基础研究项目:<投资者情绪演化及对市场流动性影响研究>(批准编号:2015JM7367);中央高校基本科研业务费项目:<投资者情绪对股票流动性扰动性效应研究>(批准编号:GK201503004)资助

摘　　要：目前多数证券危机监管研究都侧重于对制度缺陷和外生变量线性冲击的分析,忽视了对市场波动本质的深刻理解。该文将非线性研究范式引入到证券市场监管研究认为,证券市场由波动到危机实际上是一个从稳定到不稳定的非线性演化过程。系统崩塌(危机的发生)是非线性演化过程中具有"突发性"的一环。证券市场监管应该从波动初始条件的控制、波动扩散的评估与监控、波动演化的动态监管等方面加强监管措施制定和实施。这种更关注市场自我运行的危机监管框架,能更好拟合市场运行过程并且符合系统演化的内在规律。The majority of stock crisis supervision studies has focused on analysis of the defects of the system and the exogenous variables linear impact, ignoring the profound understanding to the essence of market volatility. In this paper, the nonlinear research paradigm is introduced into the securities market supervision, the process from fluctuation to crisis of the securities market is in fact nonlinear revolution process from stable to unstable. Collapse is ＂a ring of sudden＂ of the nonlinear evolution process. Securities market supervision should strengthen the formulation and implementation of supervision measures in the control of initial condition of volatility, the assessment and monitoring of volatility diffusion; evolution dynamic supervision. The framework of supervision pays more attention to self-operation of the market, and better fits on the operation and inherent law of the evolution of the market.

关 键 词：证券市场监管 非线性系统 混沌理论 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]