极端干旱区额济纳绿洲稳定性评价研究  

Study on the Oasis Stability Evaluation of Extreme Arid Region of Ejina

作　　者：王耀斌[1,2] 冯起[2] 刘光琇[2] 司建华[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学旅游学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第9期162-165,190,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“基于粗糙集与模糊集结合的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价”(41261019)

摘　　要：绿洲稳定性研究是绿洲学研究的重点、热点，也是目前未充分探讨和解决的难点。以极端干旱区额济纳绿洲为研究对象，选取六种常用方法评价额济纳的稳定性，应用众数理论评判各方法的优劣，结果发现：（1）粗糙集约简后的灰色关联分析法在绿洲稳定性评价中效果最好，粗糙集理论法最差，不能单独作为绿洲稳定性评价方法。（2）从2006年开始绿洲稳定性指数值才开始略高于1990年。其中19921998年的绿洲稳定性值都低于或接近0．04，2000年黑河分水后，绿洲稳定性值开始逐渐升高。（3）额济纳绿洲稳定性评价指标中权重最大的是狼心山径流与年降水量；其次为第三产业比重和地下水水位埋深；最小的是当年造林面积。Studies of the oasis stability are not only the key and focus in oasis research but also the difficult problem not fully explored and discussed in the oasis learning currently. This paper takes Ejina Extreme Arid Region Oasis as the research object, chooses six kinds of oasis stability evaluation method, and applies Mode theory, then the results show that （1）： Gray relational analysis after rough set reduction method is the best in the oasis stability evaluation, and the method of rough set theory is the worst, so it can＇t evaluate the oasis stability. （2） From the year of 2006, Ejina oasis stability index began to slightly be higher than that of 1990. Between the year of 1992 and 1998, the oasis stability values are less than or close to 0.04. From the water diversion of Heihe in 2000, the oasis stability value began to rise slowly, and it also appeared fluctuation during the period. （3） The largest weight of Ejina oasis stability evaluation index is Langxin mountain runoff and annual precipitation. Those which follow are the proportion of the tertiary industry and the depth of the groundwater level. The smallest is the area of afforestation.

关 键 词：额济纳绿洲 绿洲稳定性 综合评价 极端干旱区 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]