我国原料奶生产现状及影响因素分析  

Analysis on Production Status and Influence Factors of Raw Milk in China

作　　者：刘希[1] 李彤[1] 权聪娜[1] 张曼玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学商学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《中国畜牧杂志》2015年第16期3-7,14,共6页Chinese Journal of Animal Science

基　　金：河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:新时期河北省奶业发展战略研究(ZD201420);河北省现代农业产业体系奶牛产业经济与政策研究岗位

摘　　要：从2014年底开始,我国多个省市的乳企开始拒收原料奶,导致奶农大面积倒奶甚至出现奶农杀牛事件。在乳制品进口量激增、国内乳企产品结构失衡等内外因素的共同作用下,一次原本正常的周期性农产品价格变化显得异常明显。因此,本文以原料奶为研究对象,从供给和需求的角度,将原料奶的收购价格、饲料价格、市场需求等影响因素进行归类分析。选取2010—2015年的相关数据为观察值,了解近几年原料奶波动的趋势,分析各因素对原料奶价格变动的影响规律,并提出提高奶牛单产、优化奶牛品种、规模化奶牛养殖的建议。Started from the secong half of 2014, lots of dairy companies in many provinces refused to buy raw milk, as a result, plenty of raw milk was poured by dairy farmers who even slaughtered some cows. Due to the surge of dairy importation and the structural imbalance of domestic dairy companies products, a naturally periodic change of agriculture products was significantly abnormal. In this research, from the point of supply and demand, we classified and analyzed the influence factors of purchasing price, feed price and market demand. According to the related data of 2010-2015, we could learn the trend of raw milk price fluctuation in recent years and analyze how the factors influenced it. At last ,we put up with some suggestions of feed-base construction, average yield per unit area improvement and good milk-source protection

关 键 词：原料奶 奶牛生产成本 平均单产 价格均衡理论 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]