气象因素对北京房山区手足口病发病的短期效应研究  

Short-term effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of Hand-foot-mouth disease in Fangshan district of Beijing

作　　者：李丽丽[1,2] 刘起勇[1] 黄少平[2] 林华亮[3] 董瑞强[2] 许磊 杨军 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所传染病预防控制国家重点实验室,北京102206 [2]北京市房山区疾病预防控制中心 [3]广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院 [4]杭州感染性疾病诊治协同创新中心

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2015年第4期217-221,共5页International Journal of Virology

基　　金：基金项目：国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955500,2012CB955504）

摘　　要：目的 探讨气象因素对北京市房山区手足口病发病短期波动的影响.方法 采用广义相加模型在控制长期趋势、季节性趋势及其它混杂因素基础上,分析房山区2009-2013年周平均温度、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速对手足口病周发病数的影响.结果 各气象因素滞后一周对手足口病的发病影响最大,平均气温每升高1℃,手足口病发病数增加1.454％（95％C.I.0.508 ～2.410）;相对湿度每升高1％,手足口病发病数增加0.911％ （95％C.I.0.508 ～2.410）;日照时数每增加1h,手足口病发病数降低5.517％（95％C.I.-8.509～-2.426）;平均风速每升高1m/s,手足口病发病数升高19.118％ （95％C.I.3.909 ～36.553）.结论 平均气温、相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速与房山区手足口病发病相关,可将其作为预报手足口病发病的指标.Objective To examine the short-term effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease （HFMD） in Fangshan district of Beijing.Methods The association between weekly HFMD cases and meteorological factors in Fangshan from 2009 to 2013 were analyzed using the generalized additive model （GAM） and time-series analysis,after controlling for long-term trend,seasonality and delayed effects.Results Average temperature,relative humidity,sunshine and wind velocity with one week lag were significantly associated with weekly HFMD cases.We found that 1 ℃ increasing in temperature led to an increase of 1.454% （95% C.I.0.508 ～2.410） in the weekly number of HFMD cases.One percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 0.911% （95% C.I.0.508 ～2.410）in the weekly number of HFMD cases.One hour increase in sunshine may lead to an decrease of 5.517% （95% C.I.-8.509 ～-2.426） and one meter per hour increase in wind velocity may lead to an increase of 19.118% （95% C.I.3.909 ～ 36.553） in the weekly number of HFMD cases.Conclusions Meteorological factors such as the average temperature,relative humidity,sunshine and wind velocity may be important predictors of HFMD transmission in Fangshan district of Beijing.

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 时间序列分析 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]