Quantitative Estimation on Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Decreasing Runoff in Weihe River Basin, China  

作　　者：HUANG Shengzhi HUANG Qiang CHEN Yutong 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi'an University of Technology

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2015年第5期569-581,共13页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51190093,51179149,51179149,51309098);National Basic Research Program of China(No.2011CB403306);Non-profit Industry Financial Program of Ministry of Water Resources(No.201301039);Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Ministry of Education(No.NCET-10-0933);Key Innovation Group of Science and Technology of Shaanxi Province(No.2012KCT-10)

摘　　要：Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that: 1) precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2) the major driving factor on runoff decrease in the 1970 s and 1990 s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960 s, while that in the 1980 s and 2000 s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model, the contributions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and management.Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that： 1） precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2） the major driving factor on runoff decrease in the 1970 s and 1990 s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960 s, while that in the 1980 s and 2000 s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity（VIC） model, the contributions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and management.

关 键 词：climate changes human activities runoff decrease quantitative analysis Weihe River Basin 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]