一类灰色Verhulst模型的优化  

Optimization of a grey Verhulst model

作　　者：王健[1] 

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院数学与统计学院,河南安阳455002

出　　处：《兰州理工大学学报》2015年第4期159-162,共4页Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金(0511013800);河南省教育厅自然科学研究项目(12A110001)

摘　　要：针对传统模型仅限对实数序列进行建模的缺陷,利用直接建模思想,得到一类Verhulst模型直接形式,并对区间灰数序列的下界序列进行预测;同时结合"信息域不减"原则,推导出上界序列的预测表达式,从而实现对区间灰数的模拟、预测.通过实例表明,该区间灰数预测模型具有很好的有效性和实用性,拓宽灰色预测模型的范围.Aimed at the deficit of traditional model that it is useful only for modelling of real number series, a direct form of Verhulst model is obtained first by using the direct modeling idea, and the lowerbound series of the interval grey number series is predicted. Meantime, the principle of ＂information field not-reducing＇is used to derive the prediction expression the upper-bound series, so that the simulation and prediction of the interval grey numbers are realized. Finally, it is shown by an actual example that this interval grey number prediction model has a better validity and practicability and will spread application scope of grey prediction model.

关 键 词：Verhulst直接模型 区间灰数 信息域 预测 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]