基于ARIMA模型的全国电视收视率实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of the National TV Ratings Based on the ARIMA Model

作　　者：刘永菲[1] 张辉[1] 连聪聪 

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学理学院,北京100024

出　　处：《中国传媒大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期29-34,共6页Journal of Communication University of China：Science and Technology

摘　　要：现代电视媒体经营中,要想在日益完善的经济竞争机制中增加收益,对于电视媒体来说至关重要,本文通过对全国样本城市的收视率数据进行了周一至周日的走势分析,并在走势相同的情况下对周四的收视率进行了时间序列建模分析,在将原始非平稳序列经二阶差分后进行了ARIMA建模。It is important for the TV media to increase revenue in the economic competition mechanism.Based on the national sample city＇s TV ratings data which is from Monday to Sunday,the article gives out the trend analysis. Under the condition of the same trend,the data of Thursday are analyzed in time series modeling and after using the second-order difference method to make the original non-stationary time series to become stationary,ARIMA model was made.

关 键 词：收视率 时间序列 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]