政治冲击、不确定性与企业现金持有  

Political Shocks,Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Holdings

作　　者：姜彭[1] 王文忠[1] 雷光勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际商学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际财务与会计研究中心

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2015年第4期130-138,共9页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71472041);北京市教委-基地共建项目(2015年度)资助

摘　　要：政治安排及其变迁会产生不确定性,对企业行为具有重要影响。不确定性与现金管理之间存在一定关系。面对政治环境的不确定性,企业的预防性动机会增强,从而可能会影响其现金持有决策。故本文以2003-2007年沪深A股上市公司数据,考察书记变更这种政治冲击产生的不确定性对企业现金持有的影响。研究发现,受政治冲击不确定性的影响,企业现金持有水平会显著增加,且新任书记的不同来源会影响该政治冲击效应。较之内部升迁,外部调任产生的政治冲击对现金持有水平的正向影响更大。但国有产权性质会弱化这种正向影响,该正向影响主要存在于民企。因政治冲击产生的现金增持具有正向价值效应,能有效提升企业的现金持有价值,且该效应也主要存在于民企。Political arrangements and their changes can cause uncer- tainties which have major impact on the corporate behavior. There is a certain relationship between uncertainty and cash management. Faced with the uncertainty of the political environment, firms＇ pre- cautionary motive will increase which may affect their decisions on the cash holdings. Therefore, by studying Chinese firms that issued Type A-shares in the SSE and SZSE from 2003 to 2007, we examine how political shock, caused by a change of CPC secretaries at the municipal level, affects firms＇ cash holdings. We find that firms＇ cash holding levels can significantly increase due to the uncertainty from political shocks. Moreover, the effect of the political shocks is affected by the different promotion methods of CPC secretar- ies. Compared to the internal promotion officials, political shocks caused by external transferred officials have greater positive impact on the cash holdings. But the nature of state-owned property will weaken this positive effect, and such positive influence mainly ex- ists in the privately-owned firms. What＇s more, the increase of cash holdings due to political shocks has the positive value effect which means that the firms＇ value of cash holdings can be effectively in- creased, and this value effect also mainly exists in the private enter- prises. These findings indicate that companies can cope with uncer- tainties such as political shocks due to officials change by managing the levels of cash holdings. Meanwhile, we should take full account of the political institutional factors when we make research on the related firms＇ decisions. In addition, this paper make a systematical analysis of how the macro political shocks influence the micro-en- terprises＇ cash holdings due to officials replacement, from the per- spective of political shocks. Such analysis is conducive to the under- standing of how macro-political factors affect the micro-enterprises＇ decisions-making, and also provides a new and important research p

关 键 词：政治冲击 不确定性 现金持有 现金持 有价值 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] D0[经济管理—国民经济]