精子库供精导致近亲婚配的概率模型与统计分析方法  

Probability Model with Statistical Analysis Method for Consanguineous Marriage Due to Multiple Use of Sperm Donors by Sperm Bank

作　　者：谭玉梅[1] 范立青[2] 宋革[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省计划生育科学技术研究所生殖科,广东广州510600 [2]中南大学湘雅医学院生殖与干细胞工程研究所,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《激光生物学报》2015年第3期286-292,267,共8页Acta Laser Biology Sinica

基　　金：广东省人口与计划生育委员会科研项目(20132025)

摘　　要：根据精子库供精生育子代婚配过程的系统性分析,采用大样本理论建立了供精导致近亲婚育概率模型与统计分析方法,利用蒙特卡洛模拟验证了该模型与方法的有效性,即:通过估计供精者子代数量及其生活区域人口规模,可计算供精导致近亲婚育的最大风险概率,并分析出主要影响因素,为分区域设置精子库和评估单个捐精者最大供精数的伦理风险提供新方法。The risk of consanguineous marriage due to multiple use of sperm donors in assisted reproductive technology（ ART） is investigated in details based on large-scale sample theory,and a novel probabilistic model and statistic analysis method is established to assess the potential risk by revealing the distribution and variation characteristics of the sperm bank activity and the sperm donor. Further Monte Carlo simulation is used to prove the effectivity in calculating the risk probability,which could be used as theoretical basis for the settings and management of regional sperm banks,determination of a maximum offspring number for each sperm donor.

关 键 词：辅助生殖技术 近亲婚配 风险性评估 概率模型 

分 类 号：R321-33[医药卫生—人体解剖和组织胚胎学]