基于系统动力学的网络舆情事件传播研究  

Research on the Propagation of Internet Public Opinion Events Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：陈福集[1] 游丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第9期118-122,共5页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于知识网格面向网络舆情的政府决策知识供需匹配研究"(编号:71271056)

摘　　要：结合SIR模型,建立系统动力学仿真模型对网络舆情事件传播过程进行系统分析,绘制因果回路图,建立存量流量图,利用Vensim PLE进行模拟仿真,探索网络舆情的传播规律、影响因素及保持传播系统稳定的平衡点。结果表明,接触速率、政府管控引导速率、易感疑惑人群数量等因素对网络舆情事件传播起到至关重要的作用,进而在此结论上为相关政府部门提出相应的对策建议。In this paper, combing SIR model, we construct a system dynamic somulation model to analyze the spread of public opinion of intemet. Then we drawe a causal loop diagram, establish flow diagram and use Vensim PLE to simulate the model. It explores the internet public opinion events evolutinal process,influence factors and stable equilibrium points keeping system stable. The results show that, con- tact rate, control and guide rate of the government, the number of susceptible people and so on, play a vitial role in the spread of public opinion of intemet. Finally, acording above research, we put forward some prescriptions to control internet public opinion.

关 键 词：网络舆情 SIR模型 系统动力学 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学] G203