通货紧缩压力与当前货币政策选择问题研究  

Deflationary Pressures and the Selection of Monetary Policies

作　　者：夏洪涛[1] 朱迪星[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行武汉分行

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2015年第5期16-37,共22页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：近年来随着经济和物价指标的下滑,我国面临的通缩压力及其政策应对等问题受到持续关注。本文在回顾历史经验和梳理前期文献的基础上,对通过货币扩张治理通缩的效率问题进行了理论分析,并利用2005年1月—2014年12月的宏观经济数据构建MS-FAVAR模型用以研究了不同经济区制下物价与主要宏观变量之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,货币政策效率的非对称性在我国非常明显,受信贷顺周期和财政扩张挤出等因素的影响,如果在紧缩条件下轻易选择激进政策加速货币扩张,对治理通缩和拉动经济的效果可能并不理想。本文建议,当前应继续保持货币供给平稳增长并调整信贷结构,同时根据国外经济情况的变化,利用各项改革制度的实施在需求端寻找缓解通缩压力的机会。Recently, with the slowdown of the economy and the falling of prices in China, the deflationary pressures and the selection of monetary policy operations have gained sustaining attentions. Based on the historical experience and literature review, this paper theoretically analyzes the efficiency of stopping deflation through monetary expansions, with researches on the dynamic relationship between the price and major macro-variables in different regimes employing the Chinese macroeconomic data and MS-FAVAR model. The results show that the asymmetry of the monetary policy is salient in China. By the influence of pro-cyclical credit and fiscal expansion extrusion, radical policies to accelerate the monetary expansion is difficult to achieve the desired effect under the condition of deflation, not to mention the effects on stopping deflation and economic promotion. It is suggested that the authority should maintain the prudent monetary policy and adjust the credit structure. Meanwhile, according to the changes of foreign economic conditions, it is also recommended to utilize the reforms in various industries to alleviate the pressure of the deflation on the demand side.

关 键 词：通货紧缩 货币态势 经济周期 MS-VAR 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]