扩招以来的大学教育存量过度测度  

Measurement of the Excessive Stock of College Education since the Enrollment Expansion

作　　者：马文军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学商学院,烟台264025 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100087

出　　处：《教育发展研究》2015年第13期6-11,共6页Research in Educational Development

摘　　要：从大学教育存量相对于国民经济发展的全局性投入产出比较视角,运用DEA分析模型,就大学教育存量过度进行测度发现,扩招以来大学教育存量的过度率呈现单调下降的变化态势,到扩招后期下降到1.10%的历史低位,表明扩招本身的影响已经大大下降。过度量则呈现先升后降的倒U型变化态势,到扩招后期仍然高达2017万年。如果劳动力市场缺乏正常的新陈代谢机制,这个比率不高但体量很大的过度量,将可能主要积压于新毕业大学生群体之中,使问题变得严重。因此,当前解决大学教育过度和毕业生就业难问题的着眼点,应及时转向于扩招以外的深化经济体制改革、促进劳动力市场完善等方面。From the perspective of input-output comparison of college education stock relative to the national economy development, and by using the DEA model, the paper measures the excessive stock of college education. After the enrollment expansion the excessive rate of college education shown a declining trend and dipped to the historic low-point of 1.1% in the late-enrollment period which means the influence of enrollment expansion has dropped drastically. But the excessive stock of college education shown an inverted U trend and held an excessive stock of 20.17 million years in the late-enrollment period. In the case of labor market without a normal metabolic mechanism, the large excessive stock would backlog in the newly college graduates and makes the problem worse. So it should turn from the enrollment extension to the deepening of the economic system reform and the optimizing of labor market and so on to solve the problem of excessive college education and serious graduate employment.

关 键 词：大学教育 存量过度 DEA模型 教育年限 扩招 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学]