水旱灾害风险评估方法体系及其实证研究  

Risk assessment method system for flood and drought disasters and its application

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 宋占智 周玉良[1,2] 蒋尚明[3,4] 赵君[5] 张明[6] 何君[7] 袁潇晨[8] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]安徽省.水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽蚌埠233000 [4]安徽省水利水资源重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000 [5]南京信息工程大学水文气象学院,江苏南京210044 [6]安徽工程大学建筑工程学院,安徽芜湖241000 [7]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [8]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2015年第5期142-151,共10页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51409001;51409141;71273081)

摘　　要：针对水旱灾害系统的不确定性,从系统论角度提出了水旱灾害致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露、灾损敏感性和防灾减灾能力这4个子系统组成的水旱灾害风险系统及其定量表征。从方法论角度,提出了由水旱灾害危险性分析评估、脆弱性分析评估、损失风险分析评估、风险评价、风险决策分析这5类方法组成的水旱灾害风险评估方法体系,并归纳分析本文作者以往的实证研究。结果表明该方法体系具有通用性和有效性,在自然灾害风险评估中具有参考应用价值;今后亟须进一步解析该方法体系的物理成因机制,进一步丰富、发展、完善这些水旱灾害风险评估方法,特别是基于水旱灾害损失风险形成过程的损失风险曲线评估方法。In view of the uncertainty of flood and drought disaster systems, a flood and drought disaster risk system, consisting of the disaster hazard, exposure of disaster receptors, damage sensitivity, and disaster resistance capacity, is proposed, and its quantitative characterization is examined. From the methodology point of view, a method system for flood and drought disaster risk assessment, consisting of five methods:disaster hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, loss risk analysis and assessment, risk evaluation, and risk decision analysis, was established. The results obtained from these methods in empirical research done by the authors are summarized and analyzed. The results indicate that the method system has universality and effectiveness and can provide a reference for risk assessment of different natural disasters, that the physical mechanism of the method system should be further analyzed in the future, and that these risk assessment methods for flood and drought disasters should be enriched, improved, and perfected, especially the loss risk curve assessment method based on the risk process.

关 键 词：水旱灾害风险系统 水旱灾害风险评估 方法论 方法体系 实证研究 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]