基于灰色-马尔科夫模型的电力系统CO_2排放  

CO_2 emissions of power systems in China based on Grey-Markov model

作　　者：徐杰[1] 马娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北大学管理学院,河北保定071002 [2]河北大学图书馆,河北保定071002

出　　处：《河北大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期453-458,共6页Journal of Hebei University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部中央高校科研重点资助项目(12ZX21)

摘　　要：运用灰色-马尔科夫方法对电力负荷进行中长期预测,并结合电厂发电煤耗值的预测对电力系统2011-2030年的碳排放进行了测算.计算结果表明:电力系统2015,2020,2025和2030年的碳排放分别是95.583 1×108,106.724 7×108,112.359 0×108,112.914 7×108 t,在此基础上进行了分析并对电力系统未来减少CO2排放的路径从国家政策层面、电力生产环节和电网规划及调度等方面提出了建议.Gray-Markov method is used for long-term load forecasting, combined with the prediction of power generation coal consumption value. Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of power system in 2011- 2030 are estimated through the prediction. The results show that： the power system 2015,2020,2025 and 2030 carbon emissions are 95.583 1×10^8,106. 724 7×10^8,112, 359 0×10^8 and 112. 914 7×10^8t. Based on that, the trend of power system low-carbon development were analyzed. Then some suggestions to reduce CO2 emissions of power system from the level of the national policy, power generation components, power grid optimize and dispatching in the future were suppesed.

关 键 词：灰色-马尔科夫模型 负荷预测 电力系统 碳排放 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]