中国城市土地供给政策对住房价格和城市发展影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Urban Land Supply Policy on Housing Prices and Urban Growth in China

作　　者：陈治国[1] 李成友[2] 刘志有[3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]山东财经大学山东金融发展研究院,山东济南250014 [3]新疆农业大学管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2015年第9期24-33,共10页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71063021)

摘　　要：文章采用我国284个城市2003—2013年的面板数据及东中西部地区数据,构建实证计量模型对理论模型进行有效验证。研究发现,当城市非住房部门获得更多土地配给时,房价、工资和人均产出会增加,人口规模反而下降,城市经济总产出会先增加后减小。研究结果表明,不合理的城市土地供给制度导致的土地供需错配降低了匹配城市发展的人口容量、阻碍了城市经济的持久发展,特别是优先考虑非住房用地使用的城市土地供给政策推升了房价,且发现在2009年之前,东部地区非住房用地比重对房价、工资和人均产出的推动效应较高,中部和西部地区差异不大,而自2009年以来,三个地区非住房用地比重对房价、工资和人均产出推动效应的增幅有所减缓且差异化不显著。Using the panel data of 284 city of China and data in the eastern central western re- gion from 2003 to 2013, this paper verifies the theoretical model with empirical econometric model. We find that the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis conclusion are consistent. The housing prices, wage, and economic output per capita will increase when the government allocates more ur- ban land to the non-residential sectors. While the population size will decrease, the total urban eco- nomic output will increase first and then decrease. The results show that the unreasonable urban land supply system leads to the mismatch of land supply and demand, which reduces the population capacity of urban development, and hinders the sustainable growth of urban economy. In particu- lar, the urban land supply policy that prioritizes the use of non-residential land pushes up housing prices, causes urbanization lag. Furthermore, the paper finds that before 2009, non housing land proportion of eastern region has a higher driving effect on housing prices, wages and per capita out- put, and there is the little difference between the central and western regions; Since 2009, the driv- ing effect has slowed down and differentiation is not significant.

关 键 词：城市土地供给 住房价格 城市化 土地政策 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]