快速路合流区交通事故影响因素研究  

Study on Crash Influencing Factors at Expressway Merge Segments

作　　者：吴勇[1,2] 孙棣华[1] 李蕊[3] 刘新荣[4] 梁乃兴[5] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学自动化学院,重庆400045 [2]重庆安全产业发展集团有限公司,重庆401320 [3]重庆工程职业技术学院机械工程学院,重庆400037 [4]重庆大学土木工程学院,重庆400045 [5]重庆交通大学土木建筑学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2015年第9期98-105,共8页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50921063)

摘　　要：为给道路安全设计和交通安全管理提供参考,以名古屋快速路网为例对合流区交通事故特性及其影响因素进行了研究。采用统计分析对事故率随交通密度的变化进行回归,根据其单调性将交通流分为低/高密度非饱和流与饱和流3种状态;利用主成分分析法对各状态下事故诱因的重要性进行鉴别,并对其影响机理进行分析。结果表明:事故率在非饱和流状态下随交通密度呈U形变化,在饱和流状态下随交通密度快速增加;道路线形和交通状态是2个主要的事故诱因,线形连续性越差,事故率越大;随着主线交通密度的增大,合流率对事故的影响增强,在饱和流状态下其为最重要的诱因之一;加速车道是不可忽视的因素,非饱和流状态下车道越长事故率越高,饱和流状态下车道越短事故率越大。To provide reference for rational road design and traffic safe management, traffic crash characteristics at merge segments and the influencing factors were analyzed based on Nagoya Urban Expressway network. The trend of crash rate （CR） following traffic density was firstly identified through using statistic analysis. On basis of the monotonicity of the trend, traffic flow was hereby classified into three traffic states, namely, low/high density of uncongested flow and congested flow. The significances of crash influencing factors were identified for individual state, and the influencing mechanism of each factor was also analyzed with principal component analysis. The results show that CR in uncongested flow appears U-shaped curve with the increase of traffic density. Comparatively, it increases rapidly as traffic density increases in congested flow. Road line and traffic state are two main crash influencing factors. The poorer design consistency is, the higher crash risk is. With the increase of traffic density in mainline, the effect of merging ratio on traffic crash is on the rise, which becomes one of the most significant factors in congested flow. Acceleration lane is an important factor, and longer acceleration lane refers to higher crash risk in uncongested flow while shorter acceleration lane may induce higher crash risk in congested flow.

关 键 词：交通工程 事故影响因素 主成分分析 合流区 交通状态 道路线形 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]