近期中国猪肉价格快速上涨原因分析及后期走势判断  

Influencing Factors of Recent Pork Price Increasing Quickly in China and Its Trend

作　　者：张学彪[1] 朱增勇[1] 聂凤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2015年第8期18-20,共3页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS-ASTIP-201X-AⅡ-08)

摘　　要：受前期市场价格持续低迷及环保政策等因素影响,中国生猪产业结构调整加速,生猪市场供需格局转向偏紧平衡,导致近期猪肉价格恢复性连续上涨,生猪养殖也开始扭亏为盈。展望后市,猪肉价格仍有一定的上涨空间,但是随着市场供给保障能力增强,且不考虑疫情等不确定性因素影响,猪价大幅上涨缺乏支撑,季节性波动特征显著。Affected by the lasting falling pork price and environmental protection policy, the structure of China＇s pork industry and hog supply-demand accelerated adjustment and switched to tightly balance, which made pork price rise recently and pig breeding become profitable. Looking forward to the future, pork price has some extent room to increase, but due to the enhancing ability of pig market supply and without considering the uncertainty influencing factors such as epidemic, the pork price will fail to increase sharply but fluctuate seasonally because of lack of enough support.

关 键 词：猪肉市场 猪粮比价 结构调整 养殖规模 供需格局 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]