基于CREAM的飞行控制系统人机概率安全评估方法  

Man-machine Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Method for Flight Control System Based on CREAM

作　　者：李琳[1] 马坤[1] 陈云翔[2] 纪小柠[3] 李千 

机构地区：[1]空军通信网络技术管理中心,北京100843 [2]空军工程大学装备管理与安全工程学院,陕西西安710038 [3]空军指挥学院军事理论研究所,北京100097 [4]空军装备部,北京100843

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第17期13-23,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：十二五国防预研项目(51327020104)

摘　　要：针对目前系统概率安全评估中对人为差错研究的不足,重点讨论了考虑人为因素的飞控系统概率安全评估问题.首先针对飞行员操纵差错这一特定领域,提出了基于CREAM理论的飞行员操纵差错概率量化方法.在此基础上通过DFT建模与Monte-Carlo仿真对飞控系统进行人机概率安全评估.最后通过实例计算验证了该方法的有效性和实用价值,初步解决了人机系统概率安全评估难题.Aiming at the current problem of human error in probabilistic safety evaluation, the human factor of flight control system probabilistic safety evaluation was focused in this paper. To improve the existing method on domain-specific for pilot error evaluation, a new quantitative method based on CREAM theory was proposed. And then the man-machine probabilistic safety for flight control system was calculated according to DFT modeling and Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, practical calculation proved the utility and value of the evaluation method and the difficult problem on probabilistic safety evaluation for man-machine system was solved primarily.

关 键 词：概率安全评估 飞行控制系统 人为差错 人机系统 

分 类 号：V249.1[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]